Comparative Analysis of Altman Z-Score, Springate, and Zmijewski Models in Predicting Financial Distress of Retail Sub-Sector Companies Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33062/mjb.v10i02.112Keywords:
Financial Distress, Altman Z-Score, Springate, ZmijewskiAbstract
This study aims to compare the accuracy of three financial distress prediction models, namely the Altman Z-Score, Springate, and Zmijewski models, applied to retail subsector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2019–2023 period. The sample was selected using a purposive sampling method, and analysis was conducted by calculating financial ratios based on each model’s formula, followed by an accuracy test. The results show that the Altman model achieved an accuracy of 36.67%, Springate 56.67%, and Zmijewski 63.33%. Thus, the Zmijewski model is considered the most accurate in predicting potential bankruptcy in retail companies over the past five years.
References
Altman, E. I. (1968). Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. Journal of Financial, 23(4), 189-209.
Altman, E. I. (2018). A fifty-year retrospective on credit risk models, the Altman Z-score family of models and their applications to financial markets and managerial strategies. Journal of Credit Risk, 14(4). https://mebfaber.com/wp- content/uploads/2020/11/Altman_Z_score_models_final.pdf
Amro, P. Z. N., & Asyik, N. F. (2021). Pengaruh profitabilitas, ukuran perusahaan, dan struktur modal terhadap nilai perusahaan. Jurnal Ilmu dan Riset Akuntansi (JIRA), 10(7). https://jurnalmahasiswa.stiesia.ac.id/index.php/jira/article/view/4099
Anggela, N. L. (2023). Daftar 8 gerai ritel modern yang tumbang, terbaru ada Transmart!. Bisnis. https://ekonomi.bisnis.com/read/20230201/12/1623740/daftar-8-gerai-ritel-modern-yang-tumbang-terbaru-ada-transmart
Aslamiah, S., Karyatun, S., & Digdowiseiso, K. (2023). The influence of return on assets, current ratio and debt to asset ratio on financial distress in consumption goods industry sector companies listed on the Indonesia stock exchange in 2017-2021. Jurnal Syntax admiration, 4(4), 583-596. https://jurnalsyntaxadmiration.com/index.php/jurnal/article/view/843
Baxter, N. D. (1967). Leverage, risk of ruin and the cost of capital. The Journal of Finance, 22(3), 395-403. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2978892
Brigham, E. & Gapenski, L. (1996). Intermediate financial management (5 Ed.). Dryden.
Fransiska, L., Siahaan, Y., Purba, R., & Susanti, E. (2015). Pengaruh current ratio terhadap perubahan laba pada perusahaan sektor industri barang konsumsi yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Financial: Jurnal Akuntansi, 1(1), 7-12. https://doi.org/10.37403/financial.v1i1.2
Gupita, N., Soemoedipiro, S. W., & Soebroto, N. W. (2020). Analisis perbandingan model Altman Z-Score, Springate, Zmijewski dan Grover dalam memprediksi financial distress. Jurnal Aktual Akuntansi Keuangan Bisnis Terapan (AKUNBISNIS), 3(2), 145-162. http://dx.doi.org/10.32497/akunbisnis.v3i2.2148
Jacob, B., Huazheng, H., & Congzhao, H. (2023). Financial distress analysis using Altman Z-Score, Springate and Zmijewski in retail companies on the IDX. Journal Markcount Finance, 1(1), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.55849/jmf.v1i1.53
Kasmir. (2018). Analisa laporan keuangan. Rajawali Pers.
Khairunnisa, F. (2021). Analisis potensi financial distress menggunakan metode Altman Z-score dan Springate pada perusahaan properti yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia [Undergraduate thesis, Universitas Islam Riau].
Link UMKM. (2023). Mengapa banyak perusahaan retail yang menutup gerainya di Indonesia. Link UMKM. https://linkumkm.id/news/detail/13073/mengapa-banyak-perusahaan-retail-yang-menutup-gerainya-di-indonesia
Liputan 6. (2023). Apindo: Toko ritel banyak tutup karena perubahan perilaku konsumen. Liputan 6. https://www.liputan6.com/bisnis/read/5205782/apindo-toko-ritel-banyak-tutup-karena-perubahan-perilaku-konsumen?page=2
Minsky, H.P. (1992). The financial instability Hypothesis. In P. Arestis & M. Sawyer (Eds.), Handbook of Radical Political Economy (pp. 1-9). Levy Economics Institute. https://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp74.pdf
Mulyati, S., & Ilyasa, S. (2020). The comparative analysis of Altman Z-Score, Springate, Zmijewski, and internal growth rate model in predicting the financial distress (empirical study on mining companies listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange 2014- 2017). Kinerja, 24(1), 82-95. https://doi.org/10.24002/kinerja.v24i1.3231
Platt, H. D., & Platt, M. B. (2002). Predicting corporate financial distress: Reflections on choice based sample bias. Journal of Economics and Finance, 26(2), 184–199.
Rosyada, T. A. (2024). Integrasi nilai-nilai keagamaan dalam pembelajaran sains di sekolah dasar. Islamic Studies Journal for Social Transformation, 8(1), 66-80. https://e-journal.uingusdur.ac.id/isjoust/article/view/11585
Septyanto, D., & Welandasari, N. F. (2020). Effects of current ration, debt to asset ratio, and return to success on financial distress in Indonesia stock exchange. Prosiding ICSMR, 1(1), 231-247. https://www.conference.loupiasconference.org/index.php/ICSMR/article/view/106
Shofianti. (2021). Dampak e-commerce terhadap perubahan kebiasaan belanja masyarakat di Indonesia (studi kasus: pembeli online id platform e-commerce Shopee) [Undergraduate thesis, UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta].
Springate. G. L. V. (1978). Predicting the possibility of failure in a Canadian firm (MBA Research Project, Simon Fraser University).
Sugiyono. (2018). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif, Kualitatif, dan R&D. Alfabeta.
Sulistyowati, E., Prasetya, T. B., & Widyastuti, N. (2017, November). potret kemitraan toko modern berjejaring dengan umkm lokal di Yogyakarta. In Prosiding Seminar Nasional Multidisiplin Ilmu. https://ejournal.up45.ac.id/index.php/Publikasi_Prosiding_UP45_2017/article/view/448
Supitriyani, S., Astuti, A., & Azwar, K. (2022). The implementation of Springate, Altman, Grover and Zmijewski models in measuring financial distress. International Journal of Trends in Accounting Research, 3(1), 1-8. https://doi.org/10.54951/ijtar.v3i1.169.
Susanto, I., & Setyowati, I. (2021). Pengaruh net profit margin dan return on asset terhadap financial distress perusahaan sektor pertambangan batubara yang terdaftar di BEI periode 2014–2018. Jurnal Pajak Vokasi (JUPASI), 2(2), 78-84. https://doi.org/10.31334/jupasi.v2i2.1432.
Utami, R. F., & Cahyani, P. D. (2018). Analisis persaingan bisnis ritel modern skala kecil di Kabupaten Banyumas Jawa Tengah. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Kontemporer, 2(2), 1-15. https://doi.org/10.30596/maneggio.v4i1.6714.
Wahyuni, S. F., & Rubiyah, R. (2021). Analisis financial distress menggunakan metode Altman Z-Score, Springate, Zmijeski dan Grover pada perusahaan sektor perkebunan yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Maneggio: Jurnal Ilmiah Magister Manajemen, 4(1), 62-72.
Zmijewski, M. E. (1984). Methodological issues related to the estimation of financial distress prediction models. Journal of Accounting Research, 22, 59-82.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Rizal Sigit Saputro
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
